The Maverick Tribe

It appears that I'm publishing this post on the possibility that someone might click on this link to read an article in which Michael Kinsley appears to some people that other people might worry that he's criticizing the New York Times for publishing an article about some people concerned that John McCain may have been creating the possibility of an appearance of an affair with a lobbyist.

Got it now?

Senator Obama, congratulations.  Now that you've come out on top in Wisconsin and will probably take Hawaii later on tonight, I'm starting to seriously doubt my September prediction of a Clinton victory.

You are clearly the favorite at this point.  True, you're going to have to pry the Democratic nomination out of the Clintons' bloody, white-knuckled fists first, but the nod is well within your sights.  Everybody loves you.  You're a rock star.  You're hip.  You're the latest and greatest riff.  Now flip on the lights, turn off the disco ball, and shut down the bar.  Tell your hoards of Obama-heads to lose their lighters and stow their spliffs.  It's time to get serious.

Mr. Senator:

You say you're a different kind of politician.  Now is the time to show it.  Announce that you're going to take public financing for the general election against McCain like you promised, let we think you're just another unctuous weasel.

Your Wisconsin victory speech dragged on for 45 minutes.  Stop revelling in the sound of your own voice.  The self satisfaction is far from Clintonian proportions, but it's starting to grate.

You have one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate.  Start strumming a few tunes the moderates and conservatives might recognize.

Get some better spokespeople.  You put Texas state Senator Kirk Watson out against Chris Matthews, and your guy looked like a deer caught in headlights when Matthews asked him to name some of your legislative accomplishments.  He couldn't name a single one.  Besides ethics reform, what are they, anyway?

Bottom line, Barack:  Start living up to the hype, or McCain and the Republicans will put a major crimp on the lovefest.

I'm starting to question whether public financing of campaigns is really the way to go, but regardless of my view, an Obama-McCain matchup would have two ardent advocates of public financing contending for the presidency.  They should both run under the public financing rules, as promised.  McCain says he will, Obama appears to be waffling.

John Dickerson pierces the Obamania bubble.

Truth be told, I'm not wedded to Obama.  I love the guy, but he still needs to prove to me that he would be a better president the John McCain.  On Iraq, for example, he needs to reveal more sophistication and pragmatism than he is currently in calling for immediate withdrawal to thunderous applause.  And we all need to chill out on this creepy cult-of-personality thing he's got going on.  The man is not a god, so settle down people!

That said, if Hillary Clinton ends up getting the nomination by muscling in delegates from Florida and Michigan, flying in the face of the rules that everyone agreed to, then I'm definitely voting for McCain.

QUESTION:  What is the Clintons' single sleaziest moment of the Democratic primary election?

(a)  Clinton campaign officials raising questions about Barack Obama's drug use as a teenager

(b)  Clinton ally and former Senator from Nebraska Bob Kerrey associating Obama with Islam and claiming he attended a "secular madrassa"

(c)  Bill Clinton shrugging off Obama's landslide victory in the South Carolina primary as no more significant than Jesse Jackson's victories there in 1984 and 1988

(d)  The Clintons' complaints about the rules of the Nevada caucuses after having agreed to them almost a year earlier

(e)  The Clintons' transparent distortions of Obama's comments to a Reno newspaper aimed at associating him with the ideas of Ronald Reagan

ANSWER:  None of the above.  The correct answer is:  the Clintons' bald attempt to steal the primary election on the backs of Florida and Michigan with a phony argument about voter disenfranchisement

So Obama just swept Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington.  Let's take a look at Louisiana's exit poll:

Blacks:

Obama         82%

Clinton         18%

Whites:

Obama        26%

Clinton         70%

Here's the kicker:   75% of those polled said that race was "not important" in their decision.

With Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Tuesday now over, one thing is clear.  The Democratic primary shows us that race still matters.  It matters a lot.  Ethnic groupings in America remain suspicious of one another.

What makes me say this?  Pollsters like to break out the voting public by demographic categories:  age, gender, income, education level, ideological bent, and, of course, race.  I've looked at the numbers for the Democratic contests and it is clear that the best predictor of whether a particular voter will choose Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is that voter's race.  It is the best predictor, that is, if you're anything other than caucasian.  (White Democrats generally break out more evenly between Clinton and Obama, and the specific splits are driven more by the other factors of age, gender and so forth.  Don't worry though, if you're looking for a place where whites exhibit monolithic behavior, look no further than the Republican party.)

In a race in which both contenders have done a pretty good job eschewing identity politics, Barack Obama trounces Hillary Clinton with African Americans by a factor of 4 to 1.  Meanwhile, Asian Americans go for Clinton 3 to 1.  And Latinos reliably favor Clinton by roughly 2 to 1.  I heard someone on CNN try to explain these divisions the other day by suggesting that Asians and Latinos vote as they do because they are "more comfortable with what they know".

As you ponder that sad euphemism, also consider this:  two people I've spoken to about the election mentioned that they didn't "trust" Obama, but neither could give a concrete reason as to why.  I didn't realize what was at play here until a friend (an Asian one, incidentally) pointed it out to me.

Bigotry!

Even though the sound of it is something quite atrocious,

If you say it loud enough you'll always sound precocious.

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!